Canada’s agriculture and agri-food sector is entering 2026 with a mix of concern and cautious optimism, according to the second annual threat assessment from the Angus Reid Institute and the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI).
While the overall sentiment reflects lingering anxieties about the country’s economic and political ties with the US, many industry stakeholders see promising opportunities in both domestic and global markets.
The study, based on a survey of 508 farmers, government officials, and agri-food industry professionals, reveals that nearly two-thirds (64%) believe Canada relies too heavily on the US market. With ongoing political uncertainty south of the border, a growing share of respondents now view the American political climate itself as a major threat—jumping from 32% in 2024 to 57% this year.
Despite these concerns, many in the sector believe Canada is well positioned to diversify. More than half (53%) express confidence that Canada can offset potential losses in US trade by expanding into other regions. When asked where the best growth prospects lie, respondents point toward the domestic market (84%), followed closely by Asia (outside of China and India) (83%), and Europe (82%).
The survey also shows continuity in the types of threats the industry perceives. Trade barriers and protectionism once again top the list of concerns, cited by 69% of respondents, up slightly from last year. Extreme weather and climate change remain high on the list, while worries about input costs and commodity price volatility are rising.
These financial pressures may help explain why farmers themselves report lower optimism (59%) compared to those working in government (80%) or civil society organizations (85%).
Confidence in government action remains low overall, though the trend is improving modestly. Just one-quarter or fewer respondents express confidence in government’s ability to address any of the top 10 challenges identified, though these numbers are slightly better than in 2024. When asked which areas government should prioritize, respondents emphasize interprovincial trade (42%), followed by international market access (40%) and trade policy and advocacy (34%).
Interest in reducing internal trade barriers has surged sharply from 15% last year to more than 40% today.
Even with concerns about US politics and global volatility, the sector’s overall outlook has brightened. Seven-in-10 respondents say they are optimistic about the future of Canadian agriculture — an increase from last year. While only 15% express strong optimism, the majority remain hopeful, underscoring a sector that sees opportunity even amid uncertainty.
